Kyriakos Mitsotakis is enjoying unprecedented popularity not seen since the days of Konstantinos Karamanlis and Andrea Papandreou. How popular they were is debatable, but Karamanlis was Prime Minister four times for a total of 13 years and two months; Papandreou was Prime Minister for nine years and eight months. Mitsotakis has been Prime Minister for five years and six months.
Nitpickers will say Konstantinos Karamanlis was Prime Minister longer—by 22 days—and Konstantinos Simitis was Prime Minister for eight years and 48 days. Fine. Mitsotakis is a hero who oversaw Greece’s recovery from the financial crisis of 2008. I would argue that Alexis Tsipras did much of the heavy lifting that allowed Greece to recover, but Tsipras had no plan beyond telling the Germans to “go to hell.”
Mitsotakis has little organized opposition. His New Democracy party has 158 seats in the 300-seat parliament (53%); PASOK, the Social Democratic party (31 seats – 10%), cannot get out of its own way; SYRIZA, the Colation of the Radical Left, has collapsed. SYRIZA has 36 seats (12%) on paper but is beset with infighting. The Communists have 21 seats (7%). Other left parties (Course of Freedom and the New Left) have 17 seats (6%). The far right (Greek Solution, Democratic Patriotic Movement, and the Spartans) has 29 seats (10%). The remaining eight seats are unaffiliated or vacant.
Greece has an unusual election structure. There are 250 seats up for election, but the party with the most votes gets 50 bonus seats (in reality it is more complicated than that). New Democracy did not get 50+% in the last election; it got 40%, but the 50 bonus seats gave it control.
Today, Politico.eu gives New Democracy 29%. If elections were held today, New Democracy would not win enough seats to retain control; no party would. PASOK is the only party with more than 10%, and they have 16%. Besides New Democracy and PASOK, nine parties have a realistic chance of having members elected to parliament (a party must receive at least 3% of the vote to get a seat). The Communists have their usual 8%. The left (SYRIZA, Course of Freedom, Movement for Democracy (a SYRIZA splinter group), New Left, and European Realistic Disobedience Front (you cannot make this up)) has 24%, but they are completely disorganized as a coalition. The far right (Voice of Reason, Democratic Patriotic Movement, and Greek Solution) has 19%.
The Tempe train disaster is the biggest issue in Greece today, besides the earthquakes in Santorini (I am sure Mitsotakis’s opponents will find a way to blame him for those). Tempe was the wreck two years ago that took the lives of 57 people (mainly students). The government has fumbled its response from the very start. They were slow to respond, and when they did, they denied the train was carrying explosive chemicals, which it appears to have been carrying. The correct response should have been that the Italians operated the freight train, and they were at fault. End of story.
Tempe litigation and criminal trials will continue for the next few years, and Tempe will remain in the paper every day. By the time the next election is scheduled in 2027, there will be Tempe fatigue. When you combine this with the public’s natural inclination for change, Mitsotakis will have an uphill battle to win a third term.
Mitsotakis should call for snap elections this year. His 29% support is unlikely to increase, and his opposition is completely disorganized. However, Mitsotakis cannot win control of the parliament alone; he must form a coalition. He needs to find another 11% to get him to control (including the 50 bonus seats).
The world is moving right. The nationalists are the fastest-growing political faction in Greece. They have 10% of the seats in parliament but currently enjoy support by 19% of the Greeks. Mitsotakis is more likely to convince the far right to leave him as Prime Minister than PASOK.
So, will we have elections? I have no inside knowledge. This is not something that one hears about in political circles. But it makes sense on paper. The next battle that might face Greece is between Turkey and the Dodecanese, the group of 15 islands that Turkey has had its eye on. This is something for my next post. I would not want to hold an election during a fight with Turkey.
